Mesoscale Discussion 0853
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Areas affected...Western/central lower MI into northern
IN...southern Lake Michigan
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...
Valid 202021Z - 202215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be
possible as storms spread eastward late this afternoon into the
early evening.
DISCUSSION...Occasionally organized convection is ongoing from
Chicagoland into southern lower MI, in association with an MCV
moving across WI/northern IL. Downstream moisture/instability across
lower MI remains somewhat limited, though continued heating may
eventually support MLCAPE of near 1000 J/kg. Somewhat enhanced
low/midlevel flow attendant to the MCV will support potential for
modestly organized storms to spread eastward across the lake into
lower MI late this afternoon into early evening.
A nearly stationary front is draped across southern lower MI.
Relatively clear skies are supporting diurnal heating on both sides
of the front, though temperatures are notably warmer (well into the
80s F) to the south of the boundary. Some threat for locally
damaging wind may accompany storms as they move into the region,
especially near/south of the boundary where stronger heating/mixing
has occurred this afternoon. Stronger embedded cells could also pose
at least a transient hail threat.