141
WTNT31 KNHC 181142
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 92.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for
the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.5 North, longitude 92.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest
and west is expected is expected tonight and Wednesday, and the
system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36
hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South
Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will
likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by Wednesday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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